The World Model Project
The World Model Project is a ongoing effort to model the world economy on a macro scale. The models are built on top of the Monte Carlo Modeling Engine, and will be made available for download as they become ready. It is a distributed project, where people from all over the world are invited to model the parts of the economy about which they have special knowledge. If you would like to participate, please send us a mail.
The modeling will consist of gradual refinements to existing models, and the addition of new ones. For areas of the economy where we yet have no explicitly constructed models, we will rely on models based on random walks, linear regression of historical time series data and other modeling heuristics.
It is our belief that even a simple model of the world economy will provide much better forecasts than very sophisticated models of individual sectors. The reason is that changes in any sector of the economy will quickly propagate through adjacent sectors to the entire economy. Failure to recognize this will inevitable invalidate the assumptions underlying any model, no matter how sophisticated.
We believe a good starting point for any micro- or macro-model will be the World Model. By using the world model as a framework and adapting, changing or adding to it, very sophisticated models can be built within a realistic framework.
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